Ajax have started to regain stability after a turbulent period. Under new guidance, their young and dynamic side has begun to find attacking balance, securing a 2-0 win over Heerenveen and a thrilling 3-2 victory against Twente. Their average 1.95 xG highlights their attacking productivity, but defensive lapses remain, as they often concede in open phases due to risky buildup play.
Galatasaray, by contrast, are an experienced and confident team that can score against anyone. A 2-1 win over Kasimpasa and a 1-1 draw against Bayern Munich underline both their resilience and attacking depth. Mauro Icardi continues to be their most reliable finisher, supported by Zaha and Mertens, while the midfield duo of Torreira and Demirbay brings control and tempo.
This matchup has all the ingredients for goals. Ajax will push high, dominate possession, and leave spaces behind their defense. Galatasaray are dangerous in transitions and strong on set pieces. Both teams have averaged over 1.7 xG in recent matches, while their combined defensive xGA sits close to 3.0, a sign of vulnerability.
xG Projection: Ajax 2.0 – Galatasaray 1.7
Odds: Over 3.25 Goals @2.25
The value lies again in the Over market. With both teams committed to attacking football and featuring elite finishers, this match could deliver plenty of goal action. Ajax’s home crowd and tempo should encourage an open rhythm, but Galatasaray’s counterattacks can punish them.
Value Tip: Over 3.25 Goals @2.25
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